Could the Premier League Title Race Be Decided by Liverpool vs. Arsenal in May?

Alex Keble looks at the state of play in the 2024/25 Premier League title race

Related Articles

Title race: Is the door open for Arsenal after Liverpool drop more points?

'I’d rather have Liverpool’s next six fixtures than Arsenal’s’

Arteta on the title race: We're going to really go for it

Football writer Alex Keble assesses the 2024/25 title race, explaining why we're in a potentially season-defining period of matches and how the champions could be decided when Liverpool host Arsenal in May.

Title race

Position Club Played GD Points

1

Liverpool

26 +36 61

2

Arsenal

25 +29 53

3

Nott'm Forest

25 +12 47

4

Man City

25 +17 44

View More

Liverpool are in control of the title race - but there is still every reason to believe their battle with Arsenal will go to the wire especially as Arne Slot’s side are in an eight-day period that could be season-defining.

The league leaders started a run of three tough matches with a 2-2 draw at Aston Villa on Wednesday. They now face Manchester City and Newcastle United, and if they lose both of those fixtures AND Arsenal win their next two - against West Ham United and Nottingham Forest - then Arsenal will end next week two points behind Liverpool but with a match in hand.

Liverpool's tough eight-day run

Liverpool

Wed 19 Feb

(A)

2 - 2

D

22:00

Sun 23 Feb

MCI (A)

01:45

Wed 26 Feb

NEW (H)

As Arsenal know all too well from past disappointment, things can change very quickly at the top.

Indeed, this is Arsenal’s third title challenge in as many years. That experience alone makes it foolish to write them off, despite a raft of injuries leaving them without the likes of Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus.

What is the form guide?

Liverpool have now dropped points in two of their last three Premier League matches, drawing with Everton and Villa, and scraping a 2-1 victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers. Having also been knocked out of the FA Cup by Championship club Plymouth Argyle, Liverpool have now won just one of their last four outings in all competitions. It suggests the Reds might be slowing down.

Indeed, Liverpool have collected 11 points from their last five Premier League matches, while Arsenal have picked up 13.

Liverpool's last seven results

Opponent Result Competition

PSV Eindhoven 3-2 (L) UCL

AFC Bournemouth 2-0 (W) PL

Spurs 4-0 (W) EFLC

Plymouth Argyle 1-0 (L) FAC

Everton 2-2 (D) PL

Wolves 2-1 (W) PL

Aston Villa 2-2 (D) PL

Arsenal have won five of their last six matches in all competitions, only falling to a 2-0 defeat to Newcastle in the EFL Cup.

What’s more, their wins have felt more convincing than Liverpool’s.

The Gunners have conceded only one goal in their last three matches in the Premier League, and over the last five games have beaten rivals Tottenham Hotspur and thumped Manchester City 5-1.

Arsenal's last six results

Opponent Result Competition

Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 (W) UCL

Wolves 1-0 (W) PL

Girona 2-1 (W) UCL

Man City 5-1 (W) PL

Newcastle 2-0 (L) EFLC

Leicester 2-0 (W) PL

What are Liverpool’s remaining fixtures?

After facing Man City and Newcastle, things get decidedly easier.

For a start, there is space to breathe. Liverpool play only one Premier League fixture in March.

Five of their six Premier League matches through March and April are against teams in the bottom half of the table, the only exception being Fulham away on 5 April.

They will still have to contend with Champions League football and an EFL Cup final on 16 March, but there is no doubt there is more room in the calendar this spring.

May, however, contains Chelsea, Arsenal and Brighton & Hove Albion before ending - more tamely - with Crystal Palace at Anfield.

Liverpool's remaining PL fixtures

Date Opp. Date Opp.

23 Feb Man City (A) 19 Apr Leicester (A)

26 Feb Newcastle (H) 26 Apr Spurs (H)

8 Mar Southampton (H) 3 May Chelsea (A)

2 Apr Everton (H) 10 May Arsenal (H)

5 Apr Fulham (A) 18 May Brighton (A)

12 Apr West Ham (H) 25 May Crystal Palace (H)

What are Arsenal’s remaining fixtures?

Arsenal also have tricky fixtures coming up.

This weekend the Gunners host West Ham - a team they’ve slipped up against in past title run-ins - before a trip to high-flying Nottingham Forest.

That is followed by a trip to Manchester United, and then back-to-back London derbies against Chelsea and Fulham, followed by a trip to a rejuvenated Everton.

'I’d rather have Liverpool’s next six fixtures than Arsenal’s’

Danny Murphy and Tim Sherwood discuss the title rivals’ upcoming matches, after the Reds drew 2-2 with Aston Villa on Wednesday

The good news is Arsenal only have two Premier League matches remaining in February and another two in March.

They too have a quieter fixture list ahead, which is just as well as the injuries pile up, although of course that will depend upon how far they go in the Champions League.

Their last-16 European ties will be played on 4/5 March and 11/12 March, with Arsenal and Liverpool to learn their opponents for those matches on Friday 21 February.

The difficulty only really relents towards the end of April, not long before the crunch match at Anfield.

Arsenal's remaining PL fixtures

Date Opp. Date Opp.

22 Feb West Ham (H) 19 Apr Ipswich (A)

26 Feb Nott'm Forest (A) 26 Apr Crystal Palace (H)

9 Mar Man Utd (A) 3 May Bournemouth (H)

16 Mar Chelsea (H) 10 May Liverpool (A)

1 Apr Fulham (H) 18 May Newcastle (H)

5 Apr Everton (A) 25 May Southampton (A)

12 Apr Brentford (H)

Who has the better fixtures?

The Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) is a tool used in Fantasy Premier League which ranks fixtures from one (easy) to five (hard).

It puts Arsenal and Liverpool almost neck and neck.

Arsenal’s total score is 39, or 3.0 per game, while Liverpool’s is slightly easier, at 35, or 2.9 per game.

Who will win the 2024/25 Premier League title?

Liverpool

Arsenal

Other

Select 1 more option to continue

Submit vote

Total participants: 9742

Could it come down to Liverpool v Arsenal?

It’s a rare treat to get a title showdown so late in the campaign, but it looks as though the third-from-last match of the season could, indeed, act like a cup final.

Saturday 10 May

Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool

19:30

Arsenal

Liverpool have nine matches up until hosting Arsenal. If they win all nine they will have 88 points heading into that Anfield fixture.

Arsenal have 10 matches before their trip to Liverpool. If they win all 10 they will have 83 points. So, if Arsenal and Liverpool match each other's results up until their head-to-head, Liverpool will go into that match with a five-point lead in the title race.

That means Liverpool could be confirmed as champions with a win over Arsenal, as in that scenario Liverpool would have an eight-point lead with only two matches remaining.

More than likely, one way or the other, the title race looks like going down to the wire.